The West is blinking in disbelief – Vladimir Putin just invaded Ukraine. German diplomats, French Eurocrats and American pundits are all stunned. Why has Russia chosen to gamble its trillion-dollar ties with the West?
Western leaders are stunned because they haven’t realized Russia’s owners no longer respect Europeans the way they once did after the Cold War. Russia thinks the West is no longer a crusading alliance. Russia thinks the West is now all about the money.
Russia is confident there will be no Western economic counterattack. They believe the Europeans will not sanction the Russian oligarch money. They believe Americans will not punish the Russian oligarchs by blocking their access to banks. Russia is certain a military counterattack is out of the question. They expect America to only posture. Cancel the G-8? Who cares?
Crimea crisis: What can the West do?
A review of the diplomatic, economic, and military options available to the West.
Ukraine: The military balance of power
On paper, at least, the Ukrainian military looks credible, though it is numerically inferior to the Russian armed forces - Moscow having about four times as many active troops and twice as many tanks as Kiev.
On the face of things if Russia were to move into eastern Ukraine then the Ukrainian forces should be able to put up a better performance than tiny Georgia's armed forces did when the Russians moved onto the offensive in 2008.
But in reality Ukraine's military is dispersed; it lacks readiness; and much of its equipment is in storage.
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