Host mom

From my host mom:

Hello, Misha!
We are back to normal in Kyiv. The situation is calm and traffic is running smoothly. There were some problems with the withdrawal of cash from ATMs, but now everything is fine. The situation near the borders of Ukraine and in Crimea is very tense. The fact is that Russian troops were pulled to the eastern border of Ukraine and we are at any minute expecting an attack. We announced the mobilization and many people volunteered and enlisted in the Army.

The truth today is that under the influence of the US and the EU, Putin gave the order to withdraw the troops from the eastern borders of Ukraine. It is true that the situation remains very difficult in the Crimea.

There are many Russian soldiers and they strongly provoke our soldiers. They want to make our Ukrainian soldiers use their weapons. This will give them an excuse to start a war, but our soldiers do not yield or give in to provocations. We feel strong support from the EU and especially the United States. You are the only ones who fear Putin :)

Thank you for your support, we feel that we are not alone in our fight against Russia.

PS. When the situation in Ukraine is stable, we will be waiting for a visit.

Analysis

Why Russia No Longer Fears the West

The West is blinking in disbelief – Vladimir Putin just invaded Ukraine. German diplomats, French Eurocrats and American pundits are all stunned. Why has Russia chosen to gamble its trillion-dollar ties with the West?

Western leaders are stunned because they haven’t realized Russia’s owners no longer respect Europeans the way they once did after the Cold War. Russia thinks the West is no longer a crusading alliance. Russia thinks the West is now all about the money.

Russia is confident there will be no Western economic counterattack. They believe the Europeans will not sanction the Russian oligarch money. They believe Americans will not punish the Russian oligarchs by blocking their access to banks. Russia is certain a military counterattack is out of the question. They expect America to only posture. Cancel the G-8? Who cares?

Crimea crisis: What can the West do?
A review of the diplomatic, economic, and military options available to the West.


Ukraine: The military balance of power

On paper, at least, the Ukrainian military looks credible, though it is numerically inferior to the Russian armed forces - Moscow having about four times as many active troops and twice as many tanks as Kiev.

On the face of things if Russia were to move into eastern Ukraine then the Ukrainian forces should be able to put up a better performance than tiny Georgia's armed forces did when the Russians moved onto the offensive in 2008.

But in reality Ukraine's military is dispersed; it lacks readiness; and much of its equipment is in storage.

Joke, Note, News

From Dima:
everything with me, family and friends is fine, despite all of us participated in protest. I believe the worst part is already passed, we all pray for the new country!


Russia's invasion of Ukraine (live updates)

The EuroMaidan Revolution entered its 102 day on March 2 with Russia in control of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula after an invasion that began on Feb. 28. In the meantime, Viktor Yanukovych, ousted as Ukrainian president on Feb. 22, remains in exile in Russia as Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts the right to intervene militarily in Ukraine and stay indefinitely.

NATO Needs to Move Now on Crimea

Action may provoke -- but so does doing nothing. 

Now that Vladimir Putin's Olympics are over, his gaze has turned inexorably to what he clearly regards as the premier foreign policy priority of the Russian Federation: retaining determinative influence -- if not full control -- over Ukraine.  

Many will consider any level of NATO involvement provocative and potentially inflammatory. Unfortunately, the stakes are high and the Russians are moving. Sitting idle, without at least looking at options, is a mistake for NATO and would itself constitute a signal to Putin -- one that he would welcome. 

New head of Ukraine's navy defects in Crimea

The newly appointed head of Ukraine's navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region, in the presence of its unrecognised pro-Russian leader.

Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion.

Russia approves military use, Obama disapproves

Russian upper house approves use of military force in Ukraine

Russia's upper house of Parliament voted unanimously Saturday to approve sending Russian military forces into Ukraine, amid mounting tensions in the country's Crimea region and in defiance of warnings from Western powers.

The vote followed a request from Russian President Vladimir Putin for approval to send troops into Crimea to normalize the political situation there.

Putin cited the "extraordinary situation in Ukraine" in making his request, adding that the lives of Russian citizens and military personnel based in the southern Crimea region had been threatened.

Ukraine's new government condemned the move.

Amid the uncertainty, about 300 gunmen wearing Russian Special Forces uniforms attempted to take over the Sevastopol unit of the Ukrainian Coast Guard, a senior official with the Ukrainian Border Service said Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Coast Guard had moved its ships to a position away from the coast where they were approached by three motorboats and a cruiser from the Russian Black Sea Fleet...

Obama: 'There will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine'

As the situation in the autonomous republic of Crimea escalated on Feb. 28, the President of the United States Barack Obama warned that "there will be costs" for any military intervention in Ukraine.

"Together with our European allies we have urged an end to the violence and encouraged Ukrainians to pursue a course in which they stabilize their country, forge a broad-based government and move to elections this spring," he said.

The president added that he had also spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and made clear "they can be part of the international community's effort to support the stability and success of a united Ukraine going forward, which is not only in the interest of Ukriane… but also the international community.

"However we are now deeply concerned by military movements taken by the Russian federation inside of Ukraine," Obama said.

"Russia has a historic relationship with Ukraine, including a cultural and economic ties. And a military facility in Crimea. But an violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity would be deeply destablizing, which is not in the interest of Ukraine, Russia or Europe," he added.

"It would be a clear violation of Russia's commitment to respect Ukraine’s independence and sovereign borders, and to Ukrainian and international laws," the president said.

Just after the Sochi Olympic games, he said, Russian intervention in Crimea "would invite international condemnation from countries around the world. 

"And indeed, the United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine," he said.

Funny and Disgusting

Funny -
Take A Moment And Appreciate This Badass Ukrainian Priest

Disgusting - [not in an 'ew' way, but in a let-them-eat-cake way]
The 25 Most Ridiculous Photos From The Homes Of Ukrainian Government Officials

Then and Now

Then...Tourists and citizens stroll by the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs building, 2 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors hold a pro-EU rally in front of the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs building, 30 November 2013 (Reuters)

---

Then...A calm day overlooks the plaza in front of St. Mikhailovsky's Golden-Domed Monastery, 2 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors retreat to a rally in front of St. Mikhailovsky's Golden-Domed Monastery after being chased from Maidan Nezalezhnosti, 30 November 2011 (AFP)

Now...A pro-EU rally is held in front of the Monastery, 30 November 2011 (Reuters)

---

Then...St. Mikhailovsky's Golden-Domed Cathedral and Monastery, 2 April 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...A Pro-EU protestor warms himself at a bonfire, 12 December 2013 (AP)

Now...Protestors shout 'Kyiv, wake up!' at rallies in front of St. Mikahilovsky's Golden-Domed Monastery, 1 December 2013 (AP)

---

Then...The sun shines through on a wall of religious icons at the Golden-Domed Monastery, 17 March 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...A clergyman visits the wounded as they rest in the makeshift hospital of the Golden-Domed Monastery, 19 February 2014 (Reuters)

Then and Now

Then...The October Palace (International Center of Culture and Arts) and bridge crossing over Institutska Street, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors charge up the lawnclock at October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...The bridge over Insitutska burns, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Various Ukrainian and European flags decorate the protestors' barriers on Institutska Street, 9 December 2013 (AP)

Now...Protestors at work in front of the October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Fires blaze outside the Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...The October Palace looks down at a chaotic Institutka Street and Maidan, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors occupy the bridge to the October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors cross the bridge over Institutska, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors improve their barricades on the bridge to the October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...The Founders of Kyiv overlook a calm Maidan, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...The Founders of Kyiv overlook a Maidan covered in smoke and protestors, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors mount flags on some statues while covering others with protective cloths, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...One end of the underground Globus Mall rises out of Maidan, 28 April 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors surround Maidan and the Globus Mall, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...From the top of the Globus Mall, the other end of the underground Globus Mall is barely visible at the other end of Maidan, 28 April 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors care for fallen comrades atop the Globus Mall at Maidan Nezalezhnosti, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

---

Then...The Ukrayina Hotel stands in the background of a splendidly bright and glorious day, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...The Ukrayina Hotel shows through the smoke and obscuration as a protester plays the trumpet for his comrades, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

---

Then...Crews of costumed cartoon characters constantly circled the stairs on Maidan looking for customers with which to take pictures for a fee. If you dared take their picture without their permission, they would take off running to chase you. Which is exactly what happened right after I took this picture on 23 February 2011 (Author's personal collection.

Now...Crews of protestors bring casualties down the stairs from the October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...A walking wounded casualty is escorted down the stairs as he retreats from the front lines, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

---

Then...Hotel Kozatsky stands at the far end of a sparsely-populated (cartoon characters excepted) Maidan, 23 February 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Hotel Kozatsky stands in the background as protestors prepare makeshift Molotov Cocktails at Maidan, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors throng in Maidan, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

---

Then...The digital marquee advertisement stands over one corner of Maidan, 28 February 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...The digital marquee advertisement stands over protestors carrying tires and rubble to the barricades, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Russian troops in Ukraine

Ukraine accuses Russia of deploying troops in Crimea

Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchynov has accused Russia of deploying troops to Crimea and trying to provoke Kiev into "armed conflict". 

Russia's UN ambassador said any troop movements in Crimea were within an existing arrangement with Ukraine.

President Turchynov appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to "stop provocations and start negotiations".

He said Russia was behaving as it did before sending troops into Georgia in 2008 over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which have large ethnic Russian populations.

"They are implementing the scenario like the one carried out in Abkhazia, when after provoking a conflict, they started an annexation of the territory," President Turchynov said.

...flights from and to the Crimean capital, Simferopol, were cancelled with airlines saying airspace over the peninsula had been closed.

Senior Ukrainian official Sergiy Kunitsyn told local media 13 Russian aircraft carrying nearly 2,000 suspected troops had landed at a military air base near Simferopol. This remains unconfirmed.

Then and Now

While, thankfully, most of Ukraine is relatively peaceful, I'm continuing to process through all the photos that I missed from the protests:

Then...Ukrayina hotel in the background of Maidan Nezalezhnosti, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Ukrayina hotel obscured by smoke during the protests, 19 February 2014 (Nata O.)

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Then...Police stroll through Kyiv, 2 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Police in riot gear run towards protestors, 27 February 2014 (Reuters)

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Then...Maidan Nezalezhnosti, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Maidan Nezalezhnosti in chaos, 20 February 2014 (AFP)

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Then...A stage is set up in Independence Square (Maidan) for festivities honoring veterans for May Day, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...A stage is set up in Independence Square (Maidan) for the protests, 20 February 2014 (Reuters)

Violence in Crimea

Gunmen’s seizure of parliament building stokes tensions in Ukraine’s Crimea

With unrest growing in the Crimea over Ukraine’s political transformation, a group of armed men seized the local parliament and the regional government headquarters in Simferopol early Thursday morning, barricaded themselves inside both buildings and raised Russian flags, news services reported.

...Moscow ordered surprise military exercises in a district bordering Ukraine and put troops in the region on high alert.

The developments stoked concerns about divided loyalties in Ukraine and raised the question of Russian military intervention, which Secretary of State John F. Kerry said would be a “grave mistake.” Russia insisted that the exercises were routine.

 
Dear Kremlin: Careful with Crimea

Russia seems to have made a bad bet in Ukraine. Its foreign policy, tactically agile as ever, was strategically unsound. It was certainly possible, as Russia proved in November, to bribe Ukraine's then-President Viktor Yanukovych not to sign an association agreement with the European Union. It was also possible to promise a $15 billion loan in return for a policy of repression in Ukraine. After accepting the money in principle, Yanukovych illegally forced a package of legislation through parliament that was closely modeled on similar laws in Moscow restricting freedom of speech and assembly. Right after the Kremlin freed up a $2 billion tranche of the promised loan, the Yanukovych regime gave orders for the mass shooting of protesters. 

Yet all did not turn out as planned. Moscow's strategic goal was to draw Ukraine into the Eurasian Union. 

Putin has made clear that for him the Eurasian Union is meaningless without Ukraine. He, like everyone else, understands that the Russian empire without Ukraine is without glory. But the Eurasian Union cannot possibly have democratic members, since their citizens, in trading with and emigrating to Russia, would spread dangerous ideas. Thus, Ukraine had to become a dictatorship. 

The problem with this was the Ukrainians themselves. Instead of backing down in the face of batons, rubber bullets, and a sniper massacre, they made a revolution. Although this amounted to an act of almost unbelievable self-organization, determination, and simple physical courage, it would not have happened without Russian foreign policy. If the Kremlin had no Eurasian dream, it would not need to be so concerned about the character of the Ukrainian regime and the suppression of Ukrainian civil society. It was precisely the mass killing last week that made the Yanukovych regime inconceivable in Ukraine, not just to its opponents but to many of its allies.

There seem to be two alternatives. One would be a reconsideration of the totality of Russian foreign policy, and a genuine recognition that both Russia and Ukraine have, first and foremost, an interest in good relations with their common major trading partner, the European Union, as well as with each other. The other alternative is to deny reality and continue to pursue the Eurasian dream. This would entail maintaining the line Moscow has so far taken in the crisis, namely that Ukrainian activists are fascists, terrorists, and gays. It could, perhaps, also translate into a Russian attempt to lay claim to some part of Ukraine. The greatest potential for mischief is to be found in the Crimean Peninsula, in the extreme south, where Russia has a naval base and where much of the population is ethnically Russian. 

Updates

From EuroMaidan:

23 February:
11:10am: Found in presidential residence in Mezhyhiriya - 2 kg GOLD bar shaped as bread (white bread known as 'baton') [via vk.com/revolution_ukrainian].
Now, that's just too far. Hard to contain emotion remembering mom had to wire our granny money just couple months ago cause she had none to even buy bread.

10:30am: Alarming news from Kherson - 300 people with guns, attack EuroMaidaners, the police is not interfering, clashes have been ceased for now, EuroMaidan activists are driving to Kherson for support but the police remains neutral (which is outrageous, people are questioning interim interior minister Avakov's competency)

10:00am: Report from Euromaidan Territory, evening of February 22:

"Kyiv is not in disorder, mayhem, or chaos. This is a very orderly transition...except around 16:00 today when some lads got a little over excited and kind of sort of stole a deputy's Mercedes SUV and paraded it triumphantly down to the stage only to be met by the speaker on the stage who disciplined them sharply. "Boys! what are you doing? Don't you know that the whole world is watching? Don't you understand that we are cultured and civilized and free people of dignity? We do not steal." They appeared embarrassed, and sheepishly withdrew".

9:25am: We are proud to report that today Donesk saw 2 peaceful rallies: 200 EuroMaidaners and 400 anti-maidaners. The police prevented a few brewing clashes and everyone managed to voice their opinion in peace. Some anti-maidaners brought Russian flags and were wearing the Ribbons of Saint George.

8:07am: HELP NEEDED! DOCTORS! We are looking to help those wounded on the Maidan - specifically burn victims to find treatment in the United States. We ask our readers with private ties in the United States to share information. If something can be figured out with a burn unit we could help with the consular process for victims to travel to the United States.


22 February:
9:35pm: YANUKOVYCH FOUND

President of Ukraine Yanukovych at this point has not left the territory of Ukraine

At the present moment the head of state is outside of Kharkiv at the country home of one of the influential local officials. Donetskie vesti received this information from a reliable source.

According to the source, the president’s flight to the United Arab Emirates last night was a ruse to divert attention from the fact that Yanukovych travelled to Kharkiv to take part in the congress national and local deputies.

The original plan envisioned Victor Yanukovych’s appearance at the congress, the announcement of a new southeastern Ukrainian republic, and its separation from Ukraine. The guarantor of the security of the republic was to be Russian president Vladimir Putin, who was to officially support the new government and introduce a limited military contingent to protect the republic.

However, contrary to expectations, Vladimir Putin declined, in no uncertain terms, not only to provide military support but also to recognize the new state. After that demarche the enthusiasts of that project abandoned it and decided to declare their commitment to the integrity of Ukraine’s territorial boundaries. Yanukovych decided not to attend the congress.

At present the acting president’s team is looking for ways to leave the country. Thus far their main problem is the refusal of several states to grant they asylym.

Frightening overview

Summary of February 22nd (It's not Over until It's Over)

Today Ukraine mourns and celebrates simultaneously. In the rain, the ground on Maidan was particularly black and sticky – a stark reminder of the fires that burned throughout the city center for days just recently. Blood stains have been covered with flowers, and memorials set up at each spot where a person was killed during the fighting on Feb 19-20. The coffins of heroes who lost their lives to sniper fire and riot police grenades were brought to the stage in pairs all day today – each was sent off in a moving ceremony in the presence of tens of thousands of demonstrators.

The mood was somber, but at the same time joyful – yesterday and today, the revolution scored massive political victories: Yanukovych was stripped of his powers as President, and new Presidential elections have now been scheduled for May 25; Yulia Tymoshenko - the symbol of the political repressions of the regime – was released from jail; Interior Minister Valeriy Zakharchenko was removed from office together with Viktor Pshonka, the Prosecutor General; the amendments to Ukraine’s Constitution that had been cancelled by the Constitutional Court in 2010 were re-enacted. Even though the former opposition leaders tried very hard to implement all of these things legally, we live in revolutionary times, and these times call for some legislative innovativeness. Each one of the victories needs some commentary.

First of all: the Constitutional changes. Last night, Parliament voted to reenact the Constitutional amendments adopted under questionable procedural circumstances in the final days of the 2004 Orange Revolution. Accordingly, Ukraine became a parliamentary-presidential republic with significant powers transferred from the Presidency to Parliament. However, the bill that Parliament passed last night by a Constitutional majority has not yet been signed by Yanukovych, and indeed today, when asked about this bill during his televised interview from Kharkiv, he stated outright that he would not be signing it. Nevertheless, Parliament has decided to act as if the 2004 Constitution has been legally reinstated.

This morning, Parliament opened its session with an announcement by deputy speaker Koshulynsky (Svoboda) that Speaker Rybak (Party of Regions) and First Deputy Speaker Kaletnik (Communist) had both resigned. Nestor Shufrych - a close confidant of Viktor Medvedchuk, and a high ranking member of the government team - spoke from the Parliamentary rostrum, saying that because Ukraine has reenacted the 2004 Constitutional amendments last night, if the President resigns his functions are to be carried out by the Speaker of Parliament, and therefore the key issue before Parliament today is the election of a new Speaker. Within a few minutes, Koshulynsky announced that two candidates for the post of Speaker had been nominated: Turchynov (Batkivshchyna) and Poroshenko (Independent). Poroshenko immediately took the floor to state that he was taking his name off the ballot, and Tymoshenko confidant Turchynov was elected Speaker.

Given that Rybak resigned, and Turchynov was elected by a wide margin, no possible questions can be raised as to the legitimacy of Turchynov as Speaker. However, there is a question as to which version of the Constitution regulates Turchynov’s function as Speaker of Parliament. Specifically, according to the 1996/2010 Constitution, if the President is incapacitated or resigns, his powers are temporarily transferred to the Prime Minister. On the other hand, according to the 2004 version of the Constitution, the effective Vice President of Ukraine (i.e. the Acting President in case of incapacity or resignation) is the Speaker of Parliament. Ukraine is currently in a very unclear legal situation: which version of the constitution is valid? Technically, Parliament voted to reinstated the 2004 version last night. But the President did not sign that bill, so it's not yet law. According to strict legal formality this means the 1996/2010 version of the Constitution is still in force, but Ukraine’s Acting Prime Minister Arbuzov was nowhere to be found today. When queried by a reporter on this issue, Yatseniuk was unequivocal: in his opinion, because Parliament has reinstated the 2004 Constitution by a Constitutional majority of over 300 votes, regardless of whether the bill has been signed or not, in case of incapacity or resignation, Speaker Turchynov would be Acting President.

After Turchynov’s election, Parliament proceeded cautiously: first MP’s voted to confirm Arsen Avakov (Batkivshchyna MP and former mayor of Kharkiv) as Acting Interior Minister. Then Pshonka was removed from the post of Prosecutor General, and Tymoshenko was freed from jail. All three of these votes were unquestionably legitimate and legal. Then Turchynov called a recess – apparently to arrange for Tymoshenko’s release, and to try to locate Yanukovych to notify him of the new political reality in the country. During this recess, Viacheslav Kirilenko (MP Batkivshchyna) was interviewed by the Parliamentary television station “Rada”. His claim that Yanukovych had signed his own resignation spread like wild fire, only to be dashed when the President’s television interview was broadcast at approximately 4pm.

With Yanukovych’s location now established (although it is unclear whether the President had been contacted at this point) Turchynov tabled a resolution, the legitimacy of which will be hotly debated in coming months and years. Indeed Yuriy Miroshnichenko – Yanukovych’s representative in Parliament – stated outright today that the document voted on today was a “political” resolution rather than a strictly legal one. The issue revolves around Article 111 of the Constitution which defines an extremely cumbersome impeachment procedure: first, a special Parliamentary Investigative Commission must be created to investigate any crimes that the President is suspected of committing; then that commission submits its findings to both the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Courts, which both must rule, and only then Parliament can vote on impeachment. Ukraine’s “revolutionaries” – led by Turchynov and Yatseniuk – decided to take a short cut today. They tabled a simple resolution according to which the President is relieved of his duties, but not removed from office. In a testament to the mood in Parliament today, this resolution was supported by 328 MP’s. Accordingly, Yanukovych formally remains the President of Ukraine until a new President is elected on May 25, but with no powers.

Was this decision constitutional? Only the Constitutional Court can rule on this question, and such a ruling can only come if requested by at least 50 MPs. Under current circumstances, it is highly unlikely that 50 MPs will sign a request to the Court to rule within the next 3 months, and thereafter the point will be moot.

As it stands, Parliament is proceeding with the establishment of some semblance of order in the country. Formally, the deal signed by Yanukovych on 20.02.2014 (negotiated with the aid of EU mediators) requires the President to sign the Constitutional changes adopted by Parliament on Friday, by Sunday. When these amendments come into force, it will become fully legal for Parliament to form a majority coalition and then to begin voting on specific cabinet posts. Given the current mood, I have no doubt that regardless of whether the requisite bill is actually signed or not, when the deadline passes tomorrow, the new majority will vote on a new Prime Minister and cabinet. This is likely to happen tomorrow.

Of course as of today, another new reality (in addition to the effective ouster of Yanukovych) has come about in Ukrainian politics: Tymoshenko is free. When Tymoshenko was released tonight, she was asked whether she would be running for the Presidency and she answered that she would definitely be running. Personally I believe this would be a disastrous decision, but it is clear that her speech at Maidan tonight was largely orchestrated as a pre-election event. Rather than express my own opinion of Tymoshenko’s speech, I quote the following Facebook post:

“How sad, how truly sad to watch Tymoshenko trying so hard to rouse the crowd on Maidan whilst not knowing that the world she knew has changed beyond all recognition. Sadly she is now an out of date politician in a world she does not understand. If she runs for the Presidency I think she will unlikely get past the first round, better that she should just retire gracefully and write her memoirs as there is no place in Ukrainian politics for her today.” (Martin Nunn – Facebook 22.02.2014)

Tymoshenko repeated several times that she is deeply saddened that she was unable to take part in the revolution, but that she now “guarantees” that she will “never let this happen to the people again.” The paradigm of this statement is clearly pre-revolutionary: Ukrainians today no longer believe that someone in government should be their “protector”. On the contrary, they have shown that they will not tolerate being “ruled” – they want representative rule-based government, and they are willing and able (as Klitschko painfully found out yesterday) to ensure that those in office govern in a way that is accountable to the people. Tymoshenko seems to believe that Ukrainians want/need to be “ruled”. I fear that if she actually wins the upcoming Presidential election, we may have another Maidan before her term is over.

If one is to judge by my Facebook stream (highly unrepresentative), Tymoshenko does not enjoy much popularity anymore, but realistically her victory in the upcoming Presidential election may be a very real possibility. Internet social media users tend to be from the educated middle class. Tymoshenko’s electorate is very similar to that of Yanukovych – except that hers hails from the western and central regions of the country, rather than the east. Tymoshenko voters tend to be aged 50+, poorly educated, and primarily from the working class. Although this is the most active segment of Ukraine’s electorate, after the Maidan it may no longer be decisi
But the question of who will be Ukraine’s next President is a matter for future debates. Although tonight the Maidan celebrated its victories (and simultaneously mourned its dead), the revolution is not fully resolved just yet. Yanukovych is still alive and well, and on Ukrainian territory. He remains an important persona in Ukrainian politics. As I found out from many friends on Maidan today, last night I was not the only one tracking what was assumed to be the President's plane on flightradar24.com until 4:30 am Kyiv time. The aircraft we were all watching on radar landed in the Arab Emirates, but as it turned out, Yanukovych was not on board. Today, Yanukovych was interviewed on television from Kharkiv. He called today’s events in Kyiv a “coup d’etat”, and reiterated that he remains the legally elected President of Ukraine.

It must have been exceptionally painful for Yanukovych to watch his precious Mezhyhiriya residence opened to journalists and ordinary citizens today. There, they found evidence of hasty packing, and multiple works of art and collectibles (e.g. a collection of vintage cars) that were left behind. They also recovered documents that demonstrate the scope of Yanukovych’s massive corruption machine, and others that show his regime was systematically targeting opposition journalists and civil society activists. In Yanukovych’s private quarters, they found his famous golden toilet, and also a Viagra equivalent at his bedside. Strolling through the gardens, the private zoo, and the golf course, journalists gasped at the opulence of the palatial mansion and grounds. Amazingly, given the extreme security measures in place at this site previously, the guards at the entrance to Mezhyhiriya simply allowed journalists to enter today – without even suggesting the need for special permission. Clearly, they were just as fed up with his regime as the Maidan revolutionaries.

In the wake of today’s events, and after having lost all support from Ukraine’s police and security forces, it is difficult to see how Yanukovych could possibly return to effective office as President. However, it is conceivable that Yanukovych could (for example) try to establish himself as the leader of an erzats-Ukraine that includes the three eastern Ukrainian oblasts (Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk) and the Crimean republic. Clearly this would require him to regain the loyalty of local elites and to negotiate Russian support, but such a turn of events cannot be discarded yet.

The above scenario is heavily dependent on the decisions eastern Ukrainians will make as to their own self-identities during the coming days. The Maidan in Kyiv was heavily supported by western Ukrainians who were prepared to fight and die for a Ukraine defined by its current borders, with its capital is in Kyiv. However, few central and western Ukrainians are prepared to fight for Donetsk or Kharkiv to be a part of Ukraine if the residents of these cities are not themselves interested. Eastern Ukrainians have traditionally demonstrated very strong regional identities (e.g. in multiple surveys), and now they themselves must decide whether these regional identities are stronger than their Ukrainian national identity. During his interview today, Yanukovych clearly stated that he would be traveling throughout the southeastern oblasts in the immediate future, and would be “trying to find answers to the current crisis from those who have remained calm in the face of violence and banditry in Kyiv.”

Yanukovych remains dangerous. He can continue to claim to be the legitimately elected President - at least until the May 25 election. The interim government in Kyiv faces massive economic problems, and Yanukovych could use this to his advantage – conducting a campaign in the east that paints the revolutionaries as a band of crooks who have overthrown the legitimate government, and then mismanaged the country. This will be an exceptionally difficult story to sell to the eastern Ukrainian electorate, but with Russian help and advice, it could yet conceivably be done. Furthermore, many of the hired thugs (“titushky”) that the Yanukovych regime imported into Kyiv during the past few weeks reportedly are still here, and they could still cause significant disturbances (e.g. burglary, car fires, street fights) that could be used to perpetrate the image of a descent into anarchy as a result of the “revolution”.

Destabilizing the situation in Kyiv, and simultaneously playing up the regional identity of the east while positioning himself as the “legitimate President whose country was robbed from him”, could be a successful strategy for Yanukovych if sufficient Russian support could be arranged. The best that he could hope for if this strategy is successful would be a lifelong Presidency in a criminalized buffer state on the Ukrainian-Russian border (similar to Abkhazia, TransDnistria, or Kaliningrad oblast). But even this option, from Yanukovych’s perspective, is likely preferable to exile or trial.

Unfortunately, this option is likely also in Putin’s interests. Today’s events must be seen as absolutely disastrous for/by the Kremlin. Yuriy Lutsenko actually verbalized the threat today from the stage of Maidan when he wished that Russians would soon feel the same taste of freedom as Ukrainians experienced tonight. For Putin, Maidan is a deadly threat to his own regime because a domino effect is inevitable: the average Russian will now ask “if the Ukrainians could throw off their authoritarian regime, why can’t we do the same with ours?” And so, the Kremlin is likely to try to undermine the image of revolutionary success in Ukraine in whatever way it can during the coming weeks and months. One obvious way of doing this would be to help Yanukovych establish himself as the “President-in-exile” in a Ukraine that includes only the eastern regions of the country, but claims legitimacy over the rest. In reality, such a Yanukovych-led “Ukraine” would only control three eastern oblasts, and the government would be fully dependent on the Kremlin, but it could be “spun” in the Russian media as the “legitimate Ukraine” (in contrast to the “bandit Ukraine”), and therefore worthy of protection and a better example to the Russian people than the revolutionary government in Kyiv.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong because such a split of the country will unlikely occur without some violence – not in Kyiv, but certainly in the east. In any case, as long as Yanukovych is alive and/or in Ukraine, the revolution is not yet complete.

Sorry for the pessimism, but in my opinion, the fat lady is clearing her throat, but not yet singing. In other words, this revolution is far from over yet…

God help us!

Mychailo Wynnyckyj PhD, Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

Government collapse

Updates from EuroMaidan on the last 24 hours of activity in the government [newest on top]:

22 February (Eastern):
3:09pm: "There is no anarchy that I have seen in Kiev. This is THE most orderly well behaved regime change I have ever witnessed!" Matt Frei @mattfrei 10:23 AM - 22 Feb 2014

11:04am: Activists located yanukovich. He is in Kharkiv outskirts, considering whether he should wait for negotiations with the EU for which he expressed hopes for earlier today or flee to Russia (or use an airport nearby to catch a flight to a more remote location).

10:36am: UK and German foreign ministers calling for the IMF to issue a loan to the new governemnt of Ukraine


10:14am: Yanykovych is removed from power!! 328 votes to fire Yanukovych. He's gone by democratic vote in parliament. Deputies now singing national anthem..

10:13am: PASSED: Ukrainian parliament adopts a regulation on the removal of yanukovich from his position as the President of Ukraine and votes in favor of emergency elections on May 25, 2014

10:09am: 5:05 p.m. Newly elected in a legitimate, legal way Head of the Ukrainian Parliament Oleksandr Turchynov, Batkivshchyna, renews Rada session.

9:53am: The Armed Forces of Ukraine proclaims that it remains loyal to the nation and will not be drawn into a political conflict.. 

7:58am: Yanukovych advisor Hanna Herman denies President Yanukovych has resigned. (Tweet from Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM 6m ago)

7:47am: Espresso TV reports that Yanukovych resigned! ..

7:22am: More Mezhyhir'ya papers. Looks like they tried to burn them but didn't have enough time. Lots of pictures and information on journalists, activists, and MPs. For example, there is an entire page of pictures of Tetyana Chornovil, who was brutally beaten.

7:15am: Found at Mezhehiria: a list of payment to people who were paid by the police. Most were paid 200 hryvniy.. [~$25]

6:55 am: Journalists finds piles of ashes from burned documents at Mezhyhiria (Yanukovych's Palace).

6:44am: Kharkiv [eastern Ukraine, Russian-leaning] appears safe. Activists chanting "Out with the criminal!" No one is attacking them, reports regarding the number of the protesters vary between several thousands and 30,000

6:33am: REGULATION TO FREE TYMOSHENKO
PASSED
322 in favor

 6:06am: Photo evidence from Mezhyhirya (presidential administration) - photos of journalist Tetiana Chornovol, brutally beaten up, allegedly for her reports of higher Ukrainian officials' wealth.

6:04am: PASSED: Constitution circa 2004. 325 votes in favor of the decision.

5:38am: A pile of documents were thrown in the water by Mezhyhirya (presidential residence near Kyiv which now seems vacated) managers. Activists are trying to save the records, looking for boats

5:29am: MAIDAN HAS DIGNITY
Maidan self-defense calls on Ukrainians to maintain peace in the country, to prevent looting or vandalism, and coordinate self-organized efforts. Every state building is the property of the Ukrainian people and must be protected from damage.

5:07am: Channel 5 finally up to date: Announced that yanukovich's plane never landed in Kharkiv, touched down in UAE.

5:03am: Reuters report that yanukovich is still in Ukraine. “Everything’s ok with him,” a source told Reuters. “He is in Ukraine.” Asked whether yanukovich was in the capital, the source replied: “I cannot say.” -- The Guardian
Yeah, right, that's why his official residence is fully available to the public and not guarded anymore. Journalists are let it freely, other people flocking to the site out of curiousity are asked to wait until a bit later.

4:54am: Yanukovich's lavish residence, Mezhyhir'ya, just outside of Kyiv has been opened for people. While before people couldn't even get on the road to it, security now let people come to the gates and journalists are let inside, but they haven't been in the mansion yet. Yanukovich's residence has been a heated topic of debate, many believe it is stolen real estate. Crowds are gathering outside to be let in, security forces are being cooperative and remind that there is to be no looting.

4:02am: Two more MPs leave the Party of Regions. yanukovich is missing, most likely fleed the country (see our earlier reports on AOJ92C plane route to the Persian Gulf). The parliament is set to arrange for new government and secure the peace and integrity of Ukraine, vote for yanukovich resignation/impeachment (they need 300 votes for that and still short of some, more MPs are expected to join them).

3:49am: 10.46 a.m. Six more MPs leave the Party of Regions [government party]

3:23am: 10.20 a.m. Turchynov: most ministers are unaccounted for, we don't know where yanukovich is; the parliament is the only legitimate state body in Ukraine.

 3:21am: The parliament plans to approve speaker's resignation, elect new speaker, adopt the document to prevent looting, then - new government, new prosecutor general, new head of security service, impeachment and setting the date for presidential elections. Journalsts were allowed to Mezhyhirya, yanukovich wasn't there, Kharkiv administration says they would know if yanukovich was in town.

3:09am: Volodymyr Rybak, speaker of the parliament, pens a letter of resignation


21 February:
11:23pm: ITAR TASS: Kharkiv airport officially denies yanukovich landed there overnight.

10:15pm: "Now confirmed that President Yanukovich tried to get the Army as well to move against protesters. He wanted same in 2004 but was stopped" Tweet from Carl Bildt, Swedish Foreign Minister @carlbildt. 5:49 PM - 21 Feb 2014

10:02pm: yanukovich may or may not have landed in Fujairah, UAE, or Muscat, Oman. We are trying to confirm this information as him fleeing the country like this would dramatically increase the chances of the parliament voting in favor of impeachment today. Moreover, NO information on yanukovich in Kharkiv, which means the chances of him actually being there are pretty slim.

Then and Now

Then...Kyiv Dynamo starts their game surrounded by cheering fans, 24 February 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Kyiv Dynamo starts their game with a moment of silence surrounded by empty seats, 21 February 2014 (AP/BBC)

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Then...Kyiv's Dynamo stadium archway after a game, 1 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Kyiv's Dynamo stadium archway is the front lines against police, 24 January 2014 (Getty Images)

Now...Tires burning amidst protests, 22 January 2014 (Getty Images)

Now...Priests of all faiths form a front line of prayer near the protests, 20 February 2014 (Getty Images)

Now...Protestors bring one of two makeshift catapults/trebuchets to the front lines, 22 February 2014 (Sky News)

Now...Protestors shoot makeshift Molotov Cocktails with a giant slingshot, 24 January 2014 (The Independent)

Now...Protestor throws rocks at riot police through thick black smoke, 22 January 2014 (Getty Images)

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Then...Ukraine's poet laureate, Taraso Shevchenko, overlooks a calm square in the western L'Viv, 27 February 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...European-leaning crowds begin protesting Yanukovych's abrupt turn from the EU to Russia, 24 November 2013 (Kyiv Post)

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Then...Kyiv's Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square), site of the 2004 Orange Revolution protests, on a snowy night, 24 February 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Kyiv's Maidan Nezalezhnosti was the original front lines of these protests, 12 December 2013 (New York Times)

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Then...Kyiv's patron saint, the archangel Mikhail, overlooks Independence Square, 23 February 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Mikhail overlooks throngs of Ukrainians gathering after the latest tenuous peace agreement, 21 February 2014 (Reuters)