Host mom

From my host mom:

Hello, Misha!
We are back to normal in Kyiv. The situation is calm and traffic is running smoothly. There were some problems with the withdrawal of cash from ATMs, but now everything is fine. The situation near the borders of Ukraine and in Crimea is very tense. The fact is that Russian troops were pulled to the eastern border of Ukraine and we are at any minute expecting an attack. We announced the mobilization and many people volunteered and enlisted in the Army.

The truth today is that under the influence of the US and the EU, Putin gave the order to withdraw the troops from the eastern borders of Ukraine. It is true that the situation remains very difficult in the Crimea.

There are many Russian soldiers and they strongly provoke our soldiers. They want to make our Ukrainian soldiers use their weapons. This will give them an excuse to start a war, but our soldiers do not yield or give in to provocations. We feel strong support from the EU and especially the United States. You are the only ones who fear Putin :)

Thank you for your support, we feel that we are not alone in our fight against Russia.

PS. When the situation in Ukraine is stable, we will be waiting for a visit.

Analysis

Why Russia No Longer Fears the West

The West is blinking in disbelief – Vladimir Putin just invaded Ukraine. German diplomats, French Eurocrats and American pundits are all stunned. Why has Russia chosen to gamble its trillion-dollar ties with the West?

Western leaders are stunned because they haven’t realized Russia’s owners no longer respect Europeans the way they once did after the Cold War. Russia thinks the West is no longer a crusading alliance. Russia thinks the West is now all about the money.

Russia is confident there will be no Western economic counterattack. They believe the Europeans will not sanction the Russian oligarch money. They believe Americans will not punish the Russian oligarchs by blocking their access to banks. Russia is certain a military counterattack is out of the question. They expect America to only posture. Cancel the G-8? Who cares?

Crimea crisis: What can the West do?
A review of the diplomatic, economic, and military options available to the West.


Ukraine: The military balance of power

On paper, at least, the Ukrainian military looks credible, though it is numerically inferior to the Russian armed forces - Moscow having about four times as many active troops and twice as many tanks as Kiev.

On the face of things if Russia were to move into eastern Ukraine then the Ukrainian forces should be able to put up a better performance than tiny Georgia's armed forces did when the Russians moved onto the offensive in 2008.

But in reality Ukraine's military is dispersed; it lacks readiness; and much of its equipment is in storage.

Joke, Note, News

From Dima:
everything with me, family and friends is fine, despite all of us participated in protest. I believe the worst part is already passed, we all pray for the new country!


Russia's invasion of Ukraine (live updates)

The EuroMaidan Revolution entered its 102 day on March 2 with Russia in control of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula after an invasion that began on Feb. 28. In the meantime, Viktor Yanukovych, ousted as Ukrainian president on Feb. 22, remains in exile in Russia as Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts the right to intervene militarily in Ukraine and stay indefinitely.

NATO Needs to Move Now on Crimea

Action may provoke -- but so does doing nothing. 

Now that Vladimir Putin's Olympics are over, his gaze has turned inexorably to what he clearly regards as the premier foreign policy priority of the Russian Federation: retaining determinative influence -- if not full control -- over Ukraine.  

Many will consider any level of NATO involvement provocative and potentially inflammatory. Unfortunately, the stakes are high and the Russians are moving. Sitting idle, without at least looking at options, is a mistake for NATO and would itself constitute a signal to Putin -- one that he would welcome. 

New head of Ukraine's navy defects in Crimea

The newly appointed head of Ukraine's navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region, in the presence of its unrecognised pro-Russian leader.

Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion.

Russia approves military use, Obama disapproves

Russian upper house approves use of military force in Ukraine

Russia's upper house of Parliament voted unanimously Saturday to approve sending Russian military forces into Ukraine, amid mounting tensions in the country's Crimea region and in defiance of warnings from Western powers.

The vote followed a request from Russian President Vladimir Putin for approval to send troops into Crimea to normalize the political situation there.

Putin cited the "extraordinary situation in Ukraine" in making his request, adding that the lives of Russian citizens and military personnel based in the southern Crimea region had been threatened.

Ukraine's new government condemned the move.

Amid the uncertainty, about 300 gunmen wearing Russian Special Forces uniforms attempted to take over the Sevastopol unit of the Ukrainian Coast Guard, a senior official with the Ukrainian Border Service said Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Coast Guard had moved its ships to a position away from the coast where they were approached by three motorboats and a cruiser from the Russian Black Sea Fleet...

Obama: 'There will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine'

As the situation in the autonomous republic of Crimea escalated on Feb. 28, the President of the United States Barack Obama warned that "there will be costs" for any military intervention in Ukraine.

"Together with our European allies we have urged an end to the violence and encouraged Ukrainians to pursue a course in which they stabilize their country, forge a broad-based government and move to elections this spring," he said.

The president added that he had also spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and made clear "they can be part of the international community's effort to support the stability and success of a united Ukraine going forward, which is not only in the interest of Ukriane… but also the international community.

"However we are now deeply concerned by military movements taken by the Russian federation inside of Ukraine," Obama said.

"Russia has a historic relationship with Ukraine, including a cultural and economic ties. And a military facility in Crimea. But an violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity would be deeply destablizing, which is not in the interest of Ukraine, Russia or Europe," he added.

"It would be a clear violation of Russia's commitment to respect Ukraine’s independence and sovereign borders, and to Ukrainian and international laws," the president said.

Just after the Sochi Olympic games, he said, Russian intervention in Crimea "would invite international condemnation from countries around the world. 

"And indeed, the United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine," he said.

Funny and Disgusting

Funny -
Take A Moment And Appreciate This Badass Ukrainian Priest

Disgusting - [not in an 'ew' way, but in a let-them-eat-cake way]
The 25 Most Ridiculous Photos From The Homes Of Ukrainian Government Officials

Then and Now

Then...Tourists and citizens stroll by the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs building, 2 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors hold a pro-EU rally in front of the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs building, 30 November 2013 (Reuters)

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Then...A calm day overlooks the plaza in front of St. Mikhailovsky's Golden-Domed Monastery, 2 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors retreat to a rally in front of St. Mikhailovsky's Golden-Domed Monastery after being chased from Maidan Nezalezhnosti, 30 November 2011 (AFP)

Now...A pro-EU rally is held in front of the Monastery, 30 November 2011 (Reuters)

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Then...St. Mikhailovsky's Golden-Domed Cathedral and Monastery, 2 April 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...A Pro-EU protestor warms himself at a bonfire, 12 December 2013 (AP)

Now...Protestors shout 'Kyiv, wake up!' at rallies in front of St. Mikahilovsky's Golden-Domed Monastery, 1 December 2013 (AP)

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Then...The sun shines through on a wall of religious icons at the Golden-Domed Monastery, 17 March 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...A clergyman visits the wounded as they rest in the makeshift hospital of the Golden-Domed Monastery, 19 February 2014 (Reuters)

Then and Now

Then...The October Palace (International Center of Culture and Arts) and bridge crossing over Institutska Street, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors charge up the lawnclock at October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...The bridge over Insitutska burns, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Various Ukrainian and European flags decorate the protestors' barriers on Institutska Street, 9 December 2013 (AP)

Now...Protestors at work in front of the October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Fires blaze outside the Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...The October Palace looks down at a chaotic Institutka Street and Maidan, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors occupy the bridge to the October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors cross the bridge over Institutska, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors improve their barricades on the bridge to the October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...The Founders of Kyiv overlook a calm Maidan, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...The Founders of Kyiv overlook a Maidan covered in smoke and protestors, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors mount flags on some statues while covering others with protective cloths, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...One end of the underground Globus Mall rises out of Maidan, 28 April 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors surround Maidan and the Globus Mall, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...From the top of the Globus Mall, the other end of the underground Globus Mall is barely visible at the other end of Maidan, 28 April 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Protestors care for fallen comrades atop the Globus Mall at Maidan Nezalezhnosti, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...The Ukrayina Hotel stands in the background of a splendidly bright and glorious day, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...The Ukrayina Hotel shows through the smoke and obscuration as a protester plays the trumpet for his comrades, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...Crews of costumed cartoon characters constantly circled the stairs on Maidan looking for customers with which to take pictures for a fee. If you dared take their picture without their permission, they would take off running to chase you. Which is exactly what happened right after I took this picture on 23 February 2011 (Author's personal collection.

Now...Crews of protestors bring casualties down the stairs from the October Palace, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...A walking wounded casualty is escorted down the stairs as he retreats from the front lines, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...Hotel Kozatsky stands at the far end of a sparsely-populated (cartoon characters excepted) Maidan, 23 February 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Hotel Kozatsky stands in the background as protestors prepare makeshift Molotov Cocktails at Maidan, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Now...Protestors throng in Maidan, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

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Then...The digital marquee advertisement stands over one corner of Maidan, 28 February 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...The digital marquee advertisement stands over protestors carrying tires and rubble to the barricades, 20 February 2014 (Reuters/Getty Images)

Russian troops in Ukraine

Ukraine accuses Russia of deploying troops in Crimea

Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchynov has accused Russia of deploying troops to Crimea and trying to provoke Kiev into "armed conflict". 

Russia's UN ambassador said any troop movements in Crimea were within an existing arrangement with Ukraine.

President Turchynov appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to "stop provocations and start negotiations".

He said Russia was behaving as it did before sending troops into Georgia in 2008 over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which have large ethnic Russian populations.

"They are implementing the scenario like the one carried out in Abkhazia, when after provoking a conflict, they started an annexation of the territory," President Turchynov said.

...flights from and to the Crimean capital, Simferopol, were cancelled with airlines saying airspace over the peninsula had been closed.

Senior Ukrainian official Sergiy Kunitsyn told local media 13 Russian aircraft carrying nearly 2,000 suspected troops had landed at a military air base near Simferopol. This remains unconfirmed.

Then and Now

While, thankfully, most of Ukraine is relatively peaceful, I'm continuing to process through all the photos that I missed from the protests:

Then...Ukrayina hotel in the background of Maidan Nezalezhnosti, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Ukrayina hotel obscured by smoke during the protests, 19 February 2014 (Nata O.)

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Then...Police stroll through Kyiv, 2 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Police in riot gear run towards protestors, 27 February 2014 (Reuters)

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Then...Maidan Nezalezhnosti, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...Maidan Nezalezhnosti in chaos, 20 February 2014 (AFP)

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Then...A stage is set up in Independence Square (Maidan) for festivities honoring veterans for May Day, 10 May 2011 (Author's personal collection)

Now...A stage is set up in Independence Square (Maidan) for the protests, 20 February 2014 (Reuters)

Violence in Crimea

Gunmen’s seizure of parliament building stokes tensions in Ukraine’s Crimea

With unrest growing in the Crimea over Ukraine’s political transformation, a group of armed men seized the local parliament and the regional government headquarters in Simferopol early Thursday morning, barricaded themselves inside both buildings and raised Russian flags, news services reported.

...Moscow ordered surprise military exercises in a district bordering Ukraine and put troops in the region on high alert.

The developments stoked concerns about divided loyalties in Ukraine and raised the question of Russian military intervention, which Secretary of State John F. Kerry said would be a “grave mistake.” Russia insisted that the exercises were routine.

 
Dear Kremlin: Careful with Crimea

Russia seems to have made a bad bet in Ukraine. Its foreign policy, tactically agile as ever, was strategically unsound. It was certainly possible, as Russia proved in November, to bribe Ukraine's then-President Viktor Yanukovych not to sign an association agreement with the European Union. It was also possible to promise a $15 billion loan in return for a policy of repression in Ukraine. After accepting the money in principle, Yanukovych illegally forced a package of legislation through parliament that was closely modeled on similar laws in Moscow restricting freedom of speech and assembly. Right after the Kremlin freed up a $2 billion tranche of the promised loan, the Yanukovych regime gave orders for the mass shooting of protesters. 

Yet all did not turn out as planned. Moscow's strategic goal was to draw Ukraine into the Eurasian Union. 

Putin has made clear that for him the Eurasian Union is meaningless without Ukraine. He, like everyone else, understands that the Russian empire without Ukraine is without glory. But the Eurasian Union cannot possibly have democratic members, since their citizens, in trading with and emigrating to Russia, would spread dangerous ideas. Thus, Ukraine had to become a dictatorship. 

The problem with this was the Ukrainians themselves. Instead of backing down in the face of batons, rubber bullets, and a sniper massacre, they made a revolution. Although this amounted to an act of almost unbelievable self-organization, determination, and simple physical courage, it would not have happened without Russian foreign policy. If the Kremlin had no Eurasian dream, it would not need to be so concerned about the character of the Ukrainian regime and the suppression of Ukrainian civil society. It was precisely the mass killing last week that made the Yanukovych regime inconceivable in Ukraine, not just to its opponents but to many of its allies.

There seem to be two alternatives. One would be a reconsideration of the totality of Russian foreign policy, and a genuine recognition that both Russia and Ukraine have, first and foremost, an interest in good relations with their common major trading partner, the European Union, as well as with each other. The other alternative is to deny reality and continue to pursue the Eurasian dream. This would entail maintaining the line Moscow has so far taken in the crisis, namely that Ukrainian activists are fascists, terrorists, and gays. It could, perhaps, also translate into a Russian attempt to lay claim to some part of Ukraine. The greatest potential for mischief is to be found in the Crimean Peninsula, in the extreme south, where Russia has a naval base and where much of the population is ethnically Russian.